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III ANALYSIS AND TRENDS


	If one were to attempt to examine thoroughly the electronic
computer field in order to discover its origins, describe its
present status and extrapolate its future trends, one would find
that the development of computing systems is following a very
intricate path. Computing machinery itself is undergoing very
rapid and revolutionary changes. Speed, capacity, and versatility
are rising. Cost per unit of useful computational out-put is
diminishing. The cost of computation is due to a large number
of related factors, for example increased machine speeds, increased
machine storage capacity, 24-hour operation, increased reliability,
and increased automatic performance of what in the past has been
human labor. The trend is toward larger and more versatile systems
and computing systems capable of rapidly processing every item of
information. The general tendency is to reduce an entire activity
to machine methods. Inventory and stock control, payroll and
personnel, insurance premium and mailing, banking and accounting,
reservation and stock marketing are some examples of the commercial
applications of computers described in this report. In the field
of scientific calculation, application of electronic computers
is being made in literally every conceivable field of science.
With respect to computing system size, the computer field is
similar to the aircraft industry. The larger systems represent
fulfillment of certain needs, however, in terms of quantity,
the number of smaller and intermediate capacity machines far
exceed the number of larger machines. One may sum up the general
trends in computing machinery by considering separately the trends
of various features. Qualitatively, among the items which are
increasing one finds storage capacity per unit volume, useful
output per unit time, average error free running periods, and
operating ratios. Among the decreasing items one finds storage
access time, arithmetic operation time, cost per unit useful
output, and power, space, and weight requirements per unit rate of
useful output. Research and application engineering are decreasing
the gap between the known properties of material media and the
actual use of these properties. This is best illustrated in such
fields as ferromagnetics, ferroelectrics and semiconductors.
For example, electrostatic cathode ray tube storage units are
being replaced in many computers by magnetic core storage units.
New models will contain core storage instead of cathode ray tube
storage. A definite trend toward transistorization is detectable,
resulting in reduced space, weight and power, and increased
reliability and life.

	Thus far, general trends have been considered from a
qualitative point of view. It will perhaps be more interesting
to consider some of tbe quantitative aspects and characteristics
of the domestic complement of electronic digital computing
systems.
 
	The general outline of the systems descriptions contained in
this report will be followed in presenting a quantitative analysis
of the data.

A.	GENERAL

1.	Designation of Systems

	There has been a tendency to write phonetic abbreviation
for all of the early and one-of-a kind machines, such as ENIAC,
EDVAC, ELECOM, JOHNNIAC, MIDAC, NORC, and LARC. Some names identify
the type of computer, such as Electronic Discrete Variable
Automatic Computer for EDVAC. Other names identify an organization
or person, such as John Von Neumann Automatic Computer for the
JOHNNIAC and Michigan Digital Computer for the MIDAC. Many of
the larger corporations have abbreviated the name of the company
or prefixed a series of model numbers with a name associated
with a particular organization, such as IBM 701 for the Interna-
tional Business Machines Corporation Type 701 and the UNIVAC for
the Sperry-Rand Corporation.

2.	Name of Manufacturer

	The development of electronic computing systems in the interest
of national defense, could not wait until economic laws brought
about the supply of systems based on conrnercial demand for such
systems. Government had to support research and development to
satisfy defense requirements. The need for computing facilities
of increased capacity inspired the support of research by educa-
tional institutions and private industry th.rough the various
contracts for study, development of prototypes and the delivery
of systems that later became production line items. Due to this
support, manufacturers could satisfy userst requirements, creating
increased demand for systems. The original electronic digital
computer, ENTAC, designed and developed by the Moore School of
Electrical Engineering of the University of Pennsylvania, was
delivered for operation at the Aberdeen Proving Ground in 1946.
Many early electronic machines were manufactured at educational
instituti.ons such as the Institute for Advanced Study, NIT,
Harvard and the Universities of Pennsylvania and California.
Parallel research was performed by industry, and by 1950, commer-
cial large scale digital electronic computers were being de-
livered. At the present time mass production of large scale
systems is well underway. Several hundred intermediate capacity
systems of certain types have been mass produced, and literally
thousands are on order. Table I shows the manufacturers of all
the machines covered in this report.
TABLE I
COMPUTING SYSTEMS' MANUFACTURERS
MANUFACTURER SYSTEM
Air Force Missile Test Center
Computer Engineering Branch,
Technical Systems Lab.
Patrick Air Force Base, Florida
FLAC
Argonne National Laboratory
Box 299
Lemont, Illinois
ORACLE (with O.R.N.L.)
Barber-Colman Company
Rockford, Illinois
BAR-COL DEC DIG
Bendix Aviation Corp.
Bendix Computer Division
5630 Arbor Vitae Street
Los Angeles 45, Calif.
BENDIX-D12 BENDIX-G15
Burroughs Corporation
Detroit 52, Michigan
BUR-ElOl, UDEC-I, UDEC-II
Electrodata Corp.
Pasadena, Calif.
DATATRON
Electronics Corp. of America
Business Machines Division
Cambridge 42, Mass.
MAGNEFILE-B, MAGNEFILE-D
Ferranti Electric, Inc.
50 Rockefeller Plaza
New York 20, N. Y.
FER MARK-I, FER MARK-Il, PEGASUS
General Electric Co.
Syracuse, New York
OARAC
Haller, Raymond and Brown
State College, Pa.
AN/UJQ-2(XA-l)
Harvard Computation Lab.
Cambridge 38, Mass.
ADEC
Hogan Laboratories
155 Perry Street
New York, N. Y.
CIRCLE
Hughes Research and Development Labs.
Hughes Aircraft Company
Culver City, Calif.
HUGHES AAC Mod-III
Institute for Advanced Study
Princeton, New Jersey
IAS
International Business Machines Co.
590 Madison Avenue
New York 22, N. Y.
CPC, 604, 607, 608, 650, 701, 702, 704, 705, NORC
J. B. Rea Company, Inc.
Santa Monica, Calif.
READIX
Laboratory for Electronics, Inc.
75 Pitts Street
Boston 14, Mass.
TIM-II
Librascope Company
Glendale, Calif.
LGP-30
Logistics Research, Inc.
P.O. Box 451
141 S. Pacific Avenue
Redondo Beach, Calif.
ALWAC- III
Marchant Research, Inc.
Oakland 8, Calif.
MINIAC
Mass. Inst. of Tech.
Digital Computer Laboratory
Cambridge 59, Mass.
WHIRLWIND-I
Mellon Inst. of Industrial Research
University of Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh 15, Pa.
MELLON INSTITUTE-DIG
Monroe Calculating Machine Co.
Morris Plains, N. J.
MONR0B0T-III, MONROBOT-V, MONR0B0T-VI-MU
Moore School of Electrical Engineering
University of Pennsylvania
Philadelphia, Pa.
EDVAC, ENIAC
Mountain Systems, Inc.
Thornwood, N. Y.
MODAC-404, MODAC-410, MDP-MSI-5014
Natl. Bureau of Standards
Data Processing Systems Div.
Washington, D. C.
DYSEAC, SEAC, SWAC
National Cash Register Co.
Electronics Div.,
Hawthorne, Calif.
NCR-CRC-102A, NCR-CRC-102D, NCR-505, WHITESAC(CRC-106)
Naval Research Laboratory
Washington 25, D. C.
NAREC
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Oak Ridge, Tenn.
ORACLE (with A.N.L.)
Olivetti Corp. of America
580 5th Avenue
New York 56, N. Y.
OLIVETTI-GBM
Pennsylvania State University
School of Electrical Engineering
State College, Pennsylvania
PENNSTAC
Radio Corporation of America
Engineering Products Division
Camden 2, New Jersey
RCA-BIZMAC
Rand Corporation
1700 Main Street
Santa Monica, Calif.
JOHNNIAC
Raytheon Manufacturing Co.
Waltbam 54, Mass.
RAYDAC, RAYCOM
Remington Rand Division
Sperry Rand Corp.
515 Fourth Avenue
New York 10, N. Y.
UNIVAC, UNIVAC-Il, LOG, LARC, UNIVAC-SCIENTIFIC (ERA-ll0l), UNIVAC-SCIENTIFIC (EPA-ll03)(ERA-ll03A), UNIVAC-SCIENTIFIC (ERA-1102)
Technitrol Engineering Co.
2751 North 4th Street
Philadelphia 33, Pa.
TECHNITROL-180
Teleregister Corp.
445 Fairfield Avenue
Stamford, Conn.
BAEQS, MAGNETRONIC RESERVISOR, TELEREGISTER SPEDDH
Underwood Corp.
Electronic Computer Div.
Long Island City 6, New York
ELECOM-50, 100, 120A, 125, 125FP, ORDFIAC
University of California
Dept. of Engineering
Div. of Electrical Engineering
Berkeley, California
CALDIC
University of California
Los Alamos Scientific Lab.
Los Alamos, New Mexico
MANIAC, MANIAC-II
University of Illinois
Electronic Digital Computer Project
Urbana, Ill.
ILLIAC, ORDVAC
University of Michigan
Willow Run Research Center
Engineering Research Ins.
Ypsilanti, Michigan
MIDAC
University of Wisconsin
College of Engineering
Madison 6, Wisconsin
WISC
Wang Laboratories
57 Hurley Street
Cambridge 41, Mass.
WEDILOG


3. - 4. Operating Agency and Application

	Operating agencies include almost every conceivable type of
organizabion or activity. Every commodity industry, such as
steel, lumber, oil, and. coal are utilizing electronic computers.
Every service industry from transportation and publishing to
insurance and banking are utilizing electronic computers. Govern-
ment is using large scale computers in many phases of defense
activities from the computation of bombing and firing tables to
atomic energy investigations. Many applications include "on line"
service, whereby the data obtained from a scientific test or
industrial process is read by a computer which computes a result
in so short an interval of time as to permit calculated cbanges
in the conduct of the test or process. Some examples of this
include wind tunnel testing of aerodynamic models at the Ballistic
Research Laboratories and Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The
1~gnetronic Reservisor of the American Air Lines yields the
number of unsold seats on all flights out of New York from the
moment the flight is opened until departure time even though
many agents are selling tickets throughout the metropolitan area.
Stock market operations at the Toronto Stock Exchange is repre-
sentative of an "on line" application. However, the "off line"
applications exceeds the "on line" usage at present. Hundreds of
thousands of problems are run daily on computers throughout the
country in such diverse fields as statistical analysis, atomic
energy, weather prediction, topography, and in fact, every related
field of physics, mathematics and chemistry. Much is being done
on computers in the field of sociology based on census statistics
and other survey data. In almost every case of human mental
endeavor, the computing machine is being applied, even in an
attempt to improve computing machines.

5.	Photographs

	The photographs of the systems yield some information on size,
complexity and lay-out.

6.	Timing

	At this point, it is possible to discuss more specific trends
in computing systems. Of the 69 different types of systems, 54
were reported as synchronous machines and 15 as asynchronous
machines. Apparently the synchronous type of clock-pulsing
technique enjoys this majority due to the simplified logical
arrangements and error detection schemes. In these systems, all
events in the machine occur at a specific, predeterminated instant
of time, hence, every event is "scheduled". Such machines may
utilize a storage system in which information is stored as a
function of time in such devices as sonic delay lines of mercury
or quartz. Where storage does not necessarily occur as a function
of time, as in electrostatic and static magnetic storage units,
the asynchronous type of operation may be used.




7.	Type of Operation

	Of 70 computing systems, 63 were reported as being sequential,
i.e., each operation is performed in sequence, one instruction
carried out at a time, whereas, 5 systems, the IBM 702, MANIAC,
NAREC, NOEC, and LARC were reported as concurrent systems.
Apparently the trend is toward concurrent systems, that is, systems
in which several operations, such as computing and writing, may
proceed simultaneously, since this feature is being incorporated
into the more modern machines.

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